A Moment of Reflection

Heading into the first week of December, we’re getting a sense of how the 2023/24 Premier League campaign will play out. The first third of this season has already had its fair share of drama, thrills, and controversy, and it’s sure to continue. A lot of football is still to be played between now and mid-May, but it is usually around this stage of the campaign were the contenders come to fore, where the pretenders fall away and where all those in between tussle it out. So, for this week’s post, I’m going to offer my two cents on what’s happened thus far in the English top-flight.

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Three’s a Crowd

It’s been the longest time since we’ve had a genuine three horse race for the title, and this season, it’s looking like that may be the case. In previous campaigns, three supposed contenders have threatened to duel it out, but then at least one would always fall by the wayside. However, the three teams that are leading the league, Arsenal, City and Liverpool, seem destined for a three-way battle for the Premier League trophy. Manchester City are still the team to beat in England, but they haven’t looked like their usual selves, whether it’s down to injuries, complacency or the effects of their exerts from the year before.

City’s lack of concentration in some games has offered Arsenal and Liverpool hope that this may be their year. Despite not really playing that well, Arsenal are top of the league. They’ve managed to grind together results even if they’ve not been at their fluent best. The questions will remain as to whether they’ll be able to get enough goals from their strikers to seriously challenge. With Liverpool, the quality they have in attack and defence means that they shouldn’t be slept on. Will their lack of a ball winning midfielder be their detriment? We’ll have to wait and see. Even as a rival fan, I hope that one team doesn’t end up running away with it and we have a competitive race.

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The Gates of Europe Await

Below the title contenders, the hunt for the European places is going to be wide open. With the Champions League format changing from the start of the 2024/25 season, England could have five representatives in the Champions League. This means realistically, it could be up to 6 teams fighting for the remaining two Champions League places: Villa, Spurs, United, Newcastle, Brighton & Chelsea. It’s great to see that the traditional top six is a thing of the past, as from a neutral, we want to see new teams get the chance to experience the thrills of European club competition.

Villa have looked very good thus far, with the players really buying into Emery’s philosophy. Spurs started on fire, but they’ve hit a rough patch and are dealing with a mountain of injuries. As bad as I think United have been, they’re still in and around the Champions League places. Newcastle’s and Brighton’s efforts in Europe may be slightly affecting their domestic form, although they are doing enough to stay around. Chelsea are still a team that is learning to play with one another as well as adapt to Pochettino’s tactics. All realistically have a chance, and we seem set for a close race for those European places.

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Your Luck’s About to Run Out

One of the biggest storylines of the season has been Everton’s point deduction. The club have been docked 10 points for breaching the Premier League's profit and sustainability rules. This is the most severe points deduction in the history of the league, and it’s left the Toffees once again in the thick of a relegation dog fight. The consensus amongst fans, media and even fellow clubs is that the punishment is harsh, but what’s done is done and Everton must galvanise themselves for the matches ahead.

Whether you believe in Karma or not is here nor there, but Everton have been on the brink of relegation for the last few campaigns. However, this might just be the footballing universe playing a cruel trick on Evertonians. It wasn’t long ago that they beat Bournemouth on the final day of the previous campaign to survive and maybe their good fortune has started to run out. The only slight positive for the blue side of is that only 13 games have been played and so there’s plenty of time left. However, this point deduction may end up being the nail in the coffin for Everton’s Premier League status.

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Mind The Gap

You know the saying, what goes up must come down? Well, that feels like the case this year with the newly promoted sides. Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton all made the jump to the big time, but after watching them in spells this year, their chances of continuing to swim the sharks don’t look good. I don’t think the gap between the promoted sides and the rest of the league has seemed as big as it does this year, whether that’s down to the promoted clubs not being Premier League ready or just the rest of league strengthen more than those other clubs.

One thing that the promoted clubs have in common is that they have all tried to play the same way they did in the Championship as they are in the Premier League. The issue is: this ain’t the Championship. I get that the managers have a certain way of playing, but when you’re an inferior team, you’ve got to adapt to your environment. Out of the three clubs, I think Luton have the best chance of staying up as Kenilworth Road will be a tough place to go no matter who you are. I already fear for Burnley and Sheffield United. They just aren’t good enough to be in this league. I may be proven wrong, but all the signs point to it being a struggle for all three.

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This Week’s Hot Take

We rave about the Premier League being the best in the world, partly due to its competitiveness. But if City win the league again, the league is threatening to become like the Bundesliga or Ligue 1. It will be 6 titles in 7 years. That doesn’t sound competitive to me, does it? How does that differ from Bayern winning 11 titles in a row? Sure, the rest of the league is competitive, but it’s no fun seeing the same team win the league over and over again.